A data pool and 14 models that simulate trades on historical data.

Updated Oct 10, 2026 · Research only, not advice

How it works? Any requests, recommendations or questions?

Models tested

Beat their index

1 of 14

Passed the luck test

0 of 14

needs 0.95 or more

Best against its index

+46 pts

Neglected, price only

How each model did

Each model's return minus its index over the same years. Bars to the right beat the index.

Returnlost to indexbeat indexvs index

5 years, all money in at the start

2021-2026 · vs SPY

Profitable dips, never sold+51.7%-25.7 pts
Cheap, lowest P/E first+48.3%-28.6 pts
Cheap and rising+44.6%-32.4 pts
Fixed cheap limits+37.7%-39.3 pts
Cheapest quarter+36.0%-41.0 pts
Model B: absolute value+36.0%-41.0 pts
Quality and neglected+26.9%-50.1 pts
Model A: relative value+19.5%-57.4 pts
Profitable dips, sell when P/E doubles+16.2%-61.2 pts

Long run

2013-2026 · vs IWM

Neglected, price only+329.1%+45.8 pts
Value and neglected+210.5%-72.8 pts

Buy on a big move

2020-2026 · $1,000 per trade, vs the same cash in SPY

Buy 10% drops+9.9%-36.1 pts
Buy 10% jumps+8.4%-36.3 pts
Buy 10% jumps, real stop price+4.6%-40.1 pts

Model details

Search for a model to see its chart, its numbers and a few of its trades.

Could it be luck?

With 14 models tried, the best will look good by chance. Each score is the chance a model's return per unit of risk is truly above zero once that is allowed for.

Just holding SPY, 2021-20260.76
Profitable dips, never sold0.59
Neglected, price only0.58
Cheap and rising0.53
Cheap, lowest P/E first0.50
Value and neglected0.46
Fixed cheap limits0.43
Model B: absolute value0.42
Cheapest quarter0.42
Quality and neglected0.38
Model A: relative value0.34
Profitable dips, sell when P/E doubles0.34
Buy 10% jumps0.24
Buy 10% drops0.08
Buy 10% jumps, real stop price0.04

The line marks the 0.95 needed to pass.

The data

Prices go back decades. Company filings only became machine readable in 2009, so models that read financials can only be tested from about 2013.

Daily prices

19.5M

since 1962

Numbers from filings

18.8M

since 2009

Companies

7.7K

Measures per company

Stocks with pricesCompanies with filings

2000200520102013201620202024

Latest screen, Jul 28, 2026: 2,407 of 9,297 stocks passed.

What is missing

Companies that diedbiggest gap

Most tests only include companies that still exist, which makes results look better than they were. Dead companies are being added about 450 a month (921 so far).

Dividendspartly counted

Only about a third of dividends paid are in the price data. This affects the models and the index alike.

Trading costssimplified

Every trade costs a flat 0.25% each way. No taxes, and no extra cost for hard-to-trade stocks.

Linking old tickers to filingsmostly solved

357 companies that delisted before 2017 still can't be matched to their filings.

All 62 measuresEverything the screen can read about a company.

accrualsratio

(TTM net income - TTM operating CF) / assets; high = suspicious

assetsUSD

Total assets, latest reported

assets_currentUSD

Current assets

buyback_yieldratio

TTM buybacks / market cap

cashUSD

Cash and equivalents, latest reported

cash_conversionratio

TTM operating cash flow / TTM net income

cash_to_assetsratio

Cash / total assets

current_ratioratio

Current assets / current liabilities

debt_to_equityratio

Long-term debt / equity

decline_daysdays

Days since LAST at that peak

dilution_1yratio

Share count growth over ~1 year, split-adjusted

dividend_yieldratio

TTM dividends paid / market cap

dollar_volumeUSD

Median daily traded value (tradability)

drawdownratio

Fall from trailing-252d peak

earnings_growth_1yratio

TTM net income growth; null off a negative base

equityUSD

Stockholders equity, latest reported

fcf_marginratio

TTM free cash flow / TTM revenue

fcf_yieldratio

TTM free cash flow / market cap

forward_epsUSD

Consensus EPS, next 4 quarters, as visible on as_of

forward_peratio

Price / forward 4-quarter consensus EPS

goodwillUSD

Goodwill on the balance sheet

goodwill_to_assetsratio

Goodwill / total assets (acquisition risk)

gross_marginratio

TTM gross profit / TTM revenue

interest_coverageratio

TTM operating income / TTM interest expense

inventoryUSD

Inventory, net

inventory_to_revenueratio

Inventory / TTM revenue

liabilitiesUSD

Total liabilities, latest reported

liabilities_currentUSD

Current liabilities

long_term_debtUSD

Long-term debt (total, else noncurrent)

market_capUSD

RAW price x as-reported shares

net_debtUSD

Long-term debt minus cash

ocf_growth_1yratio

TTM operating cash flow growth

operating_marginratio

TTM operating income / TTM revenue

pe_ratioratio

Market cap / TTM net income (positive only)

ppe_netUSD

Property, plant and equipment, net

price_to_bookratio

Market cap / stockholders equity

profit_marginratio

TTM net income / TTM revenue

ps_ratioratio

Market cap / TTM revenue

public_floatUSD

Public float as stated on the cover page

rd_intensityratio

R&D / TTM revenue

receivablesUSD

Accounts receivable, net current

receivables_to_revenueratio

Receivables / TTM revenue

retained_earningsUSD

Retained earnings / accumulated deficit

revenue_growth_1yratio

TTM revenue vs the same measure a year earlier

reverse_splitscount

Reverse splits in trailing year (distress)

roaratio

TTM net income / total assets

roeratio

TTM net income / equity

sbc_to_revenueratio

Share-based comp / TTM revenue (real dilution cost)

shares_outcount

Shares outstanding, as reported

ttm_buybacksUSD

Trailing 12m share repurchases (absolute)

ttm_capexUSD

Trailing 12m capital expenditure (absolute)

ttm_dividends_paidUSD

Trailing 12m dividends paid (absolute)

ttm_free_cash_flowUSD

TTM operating cash flow - capex, period-aligned

ttm_gross_profitUSD

Trailing 12m gross profit

ttm_interest_expenseUSD

Trailing 12m interest expense (absolute)

ttm_net_incomeUSD

Trailing 12m net income

ttm_operating_cash_flowUSD

Trailing 12m cash from operations

ttm_operating_incomeUSD

Trailing 12m operating income

ttm_rdUSD

Trailing 12m research and development

ttm_revenueUSD

Trailing 12m revenue, point-in-time

ttm_sbcUSD

Trailing 12m share-based compensation

volume_trendratio

30d mean volume / prior mean volume