Observatory

Notes on individual companies, written on the day and published unchanged. Each shows the last close before it was written — the free data behind this site is end-of-day, so that is the newest price that existed at the time.

Observations, not advice or recommendations. Entries are never edited after publication; a changed view is written as a new note.

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  • U3 Aug 2026$31.71 close 31 Jul 2026

    Unity software dropped 4.8% yesterday in a sympathy reaction to roblox's earnings which dropped 27%. Unity software reports in 3 days and if the expectations and early signals are not negative, there is a high chance that the stock recovers the sympathy drop before earnings. The outcome of the results are unclear as there is limited data and the earliest indicator in an ad network's performance is the company's earnings report rather than actual advertiser experience and reports which clearly did lag quite a lot during applovin's turnaround. Monetizer experience catches up slightly earlier but there is no source of data which has a large sample of monetizers for now.

    Sensortower's report was inconsistent even with the historical results and I suspected the reason was the small sample size. Turns out the firm did purely rely on vibes and even considered applovin's historical results as the basis of their data for 6 months ago. The guest from sensor tower that was supposed to explain how their data showed unity adnetwork's share of wallet going down 30% in a quarter or less wasn't even aware of unity's reported growth in the past few quarters which might indicate another bullish stance on unity interms of the turnaround not yet attracting any public attention.